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Intuition – When To Trust It, When Not To

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Intuition is the whisper of the soul.”

– Jiddu Krishnamurti, Indian Philosopher

What is Intuition?

Intuition is indeed a whisper of the soul, but not an occult gift. It is a skill…a skill of recognising patterns by the subconscious mind.

If Intuition is a skill, it must have the following characteristics of skill:

  1. A skill is developed through a nested loop of (Trial & Error)+(Quick Feedback)+(Course Correction)
  2. While the talent plays its role, a skill can be developed at least to its potential (Being the best version of yourself)

How is Intuition built?

Intuition works exactly like a skill. Our brain is a pattern recognition machine. It is making patterns all the time, drawing linkages, continuously learning from all successes & failures of events that we have lived through and borne the consequences.

People who make decisions for a living are coming to realize that in complex or chaotic situations—a battlefield, a trading floor, or today’s brutally competitive business environment—intuition usually beats rational analysis. And as science looks closer, it is coming to see that intuition is not a gift but a skill.

— Thomas A. Stewart, “How to Think with Your Gut”

When we encounter a novel situation, the upper region of the brain deals with it. This is the conscious or rational brain. This process is metabolically expensive – it consumes a lot of energy & bandwidth in deciphering the code. This happens over several iterations. With repeated exposure to similar situations, the code is cracked, the pattern is formed. The pattern is then stored in the nether regions of the brain. This forms the intuition – the quick reference guide!

Consider this as a Project Leader working to creating a plan and then once the plan is set, delegating the routine work to the junior staff, while the she diverts her attention to new assignments or projects.

The lower region of the brain (The Lizard Brain) is metabolically inexpensive – it spends a lot less energy to carry on mundane tasks, without troubling the upper regions. This is like the junior staff carrying on the mundane tasks, drawing much lesser salaries. The tasks for the junior staff are well laid out. They see the pattern and work on the job without troubling the Project Leader.

The mind is always doing a juggling act between various activities. The maximum attention is given to novel tasks. During such times, the mind switches off attention to the lesser important tasks and concentrates on this one particular task. It tries to draw linkages with something it already knows; else, it gets involved in doing the more difficult task of creating new patterns. At this stage the decision making is slow and ambiguous. In due course of time and over several iterations, the mind makes patterns. At this stage, the task is delegated to the lower brain. The decision making at this stage is quick & unambiguous.

A Short Digression:

Multitasking – Human body is not designed for multitasking. If at all, multitasking can be conducted only with simple tasks – tasks which are well rehearsed and are devoid of any surprises. For example, we can talk to our friend, while walking. Make the floor slippery, and we will struggle to chat with our friend. The fast pace of modern life has, unfortunately, made it an unavoidable evil. We’re always multitasking, trying to squeeze too many things in too little time. Remember this: You can multitask only with activities which do not take too much brain bandwidth – simple, linear and rehearsed tasks. If you have an ensemble of not so simple tasks, the fastest way to complete all the tasks is by doing one at a time. I call it Monotasking.

More on this in a separate article – Introducing Monotasking!

  • An experienced soldier gets an intuition about an incoming shelling and looks promptly for cover.
  • An experienced trader develops intuition on market conditions when to go whole hog and when to go on a holiday
  • An experienced driver can tell something is wrong with his truck just by the sound it makes while ignition.

“Intuitions are not to be ignored, John. They represent data processed too fast for the conscious mind to comprehend.”

– Sherlock Holmes

The Big Question: When to Trust your Intuition, When not to?

Intuition can be trusted only in the presence of regularities and familiarities of the stimuli, i.e. only if you have encountered the stimuli enough number of times. You don’t trust your intuitions when you are dealing with novel situations. You don’t trust your intuition when the environment can change dynamically, non linearly or unpredictably.

Experiential Systems fail in nonlinear or nonstationary systems.

Michael Mauboussin, More Than You Know

Daniel Kahneman on intuition – There are three conditions that need to be met in order to trust one’s intuition

  1. There has to be some regularity in the world that someone can pick up and learn.
  2. A lot of practice
  3. Immediate feedback. You have to know almost immediately whether you got it right or wrong.

Trust you intuitions & keep stakes high:

  • In your native place
  • For your spouse or close friends
  • In your business or career in which you’re involved for long
  • In skill dominated activities like sports (chess, cricket)
  • When you are stress free

Do not trust your intuitions & keep your stakes low (as Daniel Kahneman said, “Put your intuition on ice!”):

  • In foreign place
  • For strangers
  • In new ventures
  • In luck dominated domains like gambling
  • When you are stressed out (when we’re uncomfortable & unhappy we lose touch with our intuition)